Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a heightened geomagnetic environment. With a solar flux of 140 and sunspot numbers at 152, there’s enough solar energy to support decent daytime propagation, especially on the higher bands. However, a K-index of 4 and an A-index of 50 signal increased geomagnetic disturbance, which may cause fading and unpredictable conditions, particularly on polar and east-west paths. Expect fair conditions on most bands, with lower bands (80m/40m) performing better at night and higher bands (20m–10m) offering daytime opportunities. Operators should be alert for rapid changes and take advantage of short-lived DX openings.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize contacts during fair or poor conditions.
• For DX, focus on 20m, 17m, and 15m during daylight hours; try 40m and 80m after sunset for regional and some long-haul paths.
• Vertical antennas and directional beams will help punch through geomagnetic noise.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.
• If contesting, be flexible—switch bands often and watch for short-lived band openings.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best after local sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m, 17m, 15m: Best from mid-morning to late afternoon (daytime)
• 12m & 10m: Sporadic openings possible late morning to early afternoon; check for brief DX
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced long-path opportunities, especially on 40m and 20m

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m and 17m: Most reliable for intercontinental DX during daylight, especially on north-south paths.
• 10m and 12m: Watch for short, sporadic E openings—listen for beacons and weak signals.
• Grayline: Target sunrise/sunset for boosted signals on 40m and 20m, especially for trans-equatorial and polar paths.
• Aurora: With aurora at level 2, VHF auroral propagation is unlikely, but northern operators should still monitor 6m and 2m for rare events.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, 20m, 17m, and 15m are the most consistent bands throughout the day and evening, offering fair propagation for both local and DX contacts. 80m and 40m are mostly poor during the day but improve to fair at night, making them the best choice for evening and overnight operation. 12m and 10m have limited windows, with only fair conditions during daylight and generally poor at night—check these bands for brief DX or contest activity, especially around midday.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4 (Elevated geomagnetic activity; expect increased fading and possible blackouts, especially at higher latitudes)
• Solar Flux: 140 (Moderate; supports fair propagation on higher HF bands, but not at peak cycle levels)
• Sunspot Number: 152 (Healthy; indicates ongoing solar activity, supporting ionization for HF propagation)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has recently risen to 4, indicating a period of active geomagnetic conditions. This trend suggests increased absorption and fading, especially on polar and east-west paths. If the K-index continues to rise, expect further degradation, but if it drops, conditions should stabilize and improve.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.4 (moderate). This level can cause minor HF blackouts, especially on sunlit paths, but no major disruptions expected.
• Solar Wind: 660.7 km/s (high). Fast solar wind increases geomagnetic disturbance, leading to more fading and absorption.
• Electron Flux: 32,600 (elevated). High electron flux can cause increased D-layer absorption, especially on lower bands.
• Proton Flux: 15,200 (moderate). Not at storm levels, but worth monitoring for sudden increases.
• Aurora: Level 2 (quiet to unsettled). Little impact on VHF/UHF, but northern operators should keep an ear out for rare auroral propagation.
• Helium Line: 123.3 (moderate). Indicates ongoing solar activity; watch for further increases as a sign of rising solar flux.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in solar flux (from 160 in December to 130 now) and sunspot numbers (from 124 to 85), which explains the shift from good to fair band conditions. This downward trend means operators should expect more variable propagation and shorter DX windows, especially on the higher bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast