Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing mixed conditions due to moderate solar activity and slightly elevated geomagnetic indices. The solar flux is at 122, with a sunspot number of 41, indicating fair support for the higher HF bands but not peak performance. The K-index is at 3, suggesting some geomagnetic instability, which may cause occasional fading or noise, especially on polar and trans-equatorial paths. Expect good performance on 20m during the day and evening, while lower bands (80m/40m) will be best at night. Higher bands (15m/12m/10m) are open but only fair, so DX on those bands will be more challenging. For best results, focus on 20m and 17m during daylight and early evening hours.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m and 17m for reliable daytime and early evening contacts; these bands are currently the most stable.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands like 15m, 12m, and 10m.
• For DX, target sunrise and sunset (grayline) periods, especially on 40m and 20m.
• If you experience noise or fading, try switching to a lower band or using a directional antenna to minimize QRM.
• Contesters: Focus efforts on 20m and 17m for rate, but check 15m and 10m for sporadic openings.
• Portable ops: A resonant vertical or dipole on 20m/17m will maximize your chances today.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m: Excellent from mid-morning through sunset, still good into the evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to afternoon
• 12m/10m: Possible openings late morning to early afternoon, but expect only fair to poor conditions
• Grayline: Target 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset for enhanced DX

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths on 40m and 20m are your best bet for long-haul DX, especially east-west.
• 20m remains the most reliable for intercontinental contacts, especially to Europe and South America from North America.
• 15m/12m/10m: Watch for short-lived DX openings, especially if solar flux ticks up or K-index drops.
• Aurora is low (level 2), so VHF auroral propagation is unlikely today.
• Watch for TEP (Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on 10m/6m around local noon in equatorial regions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the standout performer, offering good conditions all day and into the evening—ideal for both local and DX contacts.
• 17m and 15m are fair throughout the day; check these bands for regional and occasional DX, especially during peak solar hours.
• 12m and 10m are marginal—fair during daylight, but likely to close after sunset. Watch for brief openings, especially if solar flux rises.
• 80m and 40m are poor during the day but improve to fair at night; best for local and regional nets after dark.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 – Indicates unsettled geomagnetic conditions; some increased noise and fading possible, especially at high latitudes.
• Solar Flux: 122 – Moderate level, supports decent propagation on 20m and 17m, but not enough for consistent 10m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 41 – Low to moderate; enough for some HF activity, but not peak cycle conditions.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or storms, but keep an eye on the K-index for sudden changes.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been fluctuating between 2 and 3 over the past 24 hours, showing mildly unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No major geomagnetic storms are present, but these values can cause some absorption and fading, especially on polar paths.
• If the K-index rises further, expect increased noise and possible HF blackouts on higher latitude paths.
• Conditions are stable to slightly unsettled, so monitor for any sudden spikes.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.5 (low-level) – No significant risk of HF blackouts; normal operation expected.
• Solar Wind Speed: 546.6 km/s – Slightly elevated, which can contribute to geomagnetic instability and minor absorption.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2020 – Elevated, may cause minor absorption on lower HF bands, especially near the poles.
  • Proton Flux: 167 – Quiet, no proton event concerns.
• Aurora Activity: 2 – Very low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Helium Line: 122.8 – Indicates steady solar activity, no major upswings or drops.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has gradually declined from a high of ~160 in December 2025 to the current ~122, reflecting a downward trend in solar activity.
• Sunspot numbers have also decreased, but show a slight uptick in May 2026, suggesting we may see brief improvements if this trend continues.
• These trends mean HF conditions are not at their peak, but still support solid operation on mid-HF bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity is expected to remain moderate, with solar flux in the 120–130 range and sunspot numbers stable.
• K-index may fluctuate between 2 and 4; watch for brief periods of increased geomagnetic activity, especially if solar wind remains elevated.
• HF Propagation: 20m and 17m will continue to be the most reliable bands. 15m, 12m, and 10m may open briefly, especially during local midday.
• VHF/UHF: No significant auroral or sporadic-E events forecasted.
• Operator Advice: Continue to focus on 20m/17m for DX and contesting. Monitor solar and geomagnetic indices for any sudden changes that could impact band openings.