Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a K-index that has fluctuated between 2 and 4 over the past 24 hours, now sitting at 3. Solar flux is at 116 (recently trending down from higher values), and the sunspot number is 87, supporting decent but not outstanding high-band conditions. Expect good performance on 20m, with fair results on 17m and 15m. The lower bands (80m/40m) are poor during the day but improve at night. 12m and 10m remain mostly closed. Operators should watch for short-lived DX openings, especially around sunrise and sunset, and adapt to variable geomagnetic conditions.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m for reliable daytime and evening contacts; this band is the most consistent performer today.
• Try 17m and 15m for possible DX, especially during daylight, but expect only fair conditions.
• 80m and 40m will be best at night for regional and some intercontinental contacts—consider digital modes (FT8, PSK) to maximize weak-signal performance.
• 12m and 10m are not recommended except for local or sporadic-E openings.
• Use directional antennas and low-noise receive setups to combat increased geomagnetic noise.
• For contesters and DXers: grayline periods (sunrise/sunset) may offer brief enhancements—be ready to pounce!
• Monitor real-time cluster spots and be flexible with mode and frequency choices.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m: Good all day and into the evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially mid-morning to late afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout; check only during peak solar hours (late morning/early afternoon) for rare openings

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is your friend—watch for enhanced paths to antipodal regions at sunrise and sunset.
• 20m offers the best shot for intercontinental DX, especially on east-west paths.
• 17m and 15m may support short DX windows, especially to equatorial and southern latitudes.
• Auroral activity is low (Aurora index: 1), so VHF/UHF aurora propagation is unlikely.
• No major space weather alerts, but keep an ear out for sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) if X-ray flux spikes.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band for both local and DX work throughout the day and evening. 17m and 15m are usable but only fair—expect some QSB and variable signal strengths. 80m and 40m are poor during daylight but offer fair nighttime operation, especially for regional contacts. 12m and 10m are largely closed; only check these bands for rare, short-lived openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 — Moderate geomagnetic activity; some absorption and noise, especially at higher latitudes.
• Solar Flux: 116 — Below recent months’ averages; supports 20m and lower bands, but limits high-band (12/10m) openings.
• Sunspot Number: 87 — Sufficient for decent propagation, but down from recent highs; expect more modest band conditions.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B5.0 (quiet), solar wind elevated at 588.6 km/s, but not extreme.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has fluctuated between 2 and 4 over the past 24 hours, peaking at 4.67, but is now stabilizing around 3.
• Recent trend: An unsettled period with minor geomagnetic storms, now returning to more moderate levels.
• Impact: Expect some absorption and increased noise, especially on polar and high-latitude paths. Conditions are improving compared to the previous 24 hours.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.0 — Low-level X-ray flux; minimal risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs).
• Solar Wind: 588.6 km/s — Elevated speed can stir up geomagnetic activity, causing some absorption and noise, especially on higher bands and polar paths.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2090 (moderate); proton flux at 7 (quiet) — No significant radiation storms; normal HF operation.
• Aurora Activity: 1 — Very low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Helium Line: 126.6 — Stable; no major solar trend changes detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months have seen a gradual decline in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, from peaks above 150 (solar flux) and 130+ (SSN) to current values near 116 and 87, respectively.
• This trend explains the reduced high-band activity (12m/10m) and more modest overall HF conditions.
• 20m remains the most resilient band during these solar conditions, with 17m and 15m offering only fair results.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions are expected to remain stable, with the K-index hovering around 3 and no major solar events forecast.
• 20m will continue to be the best all-around band; 17m/15m may see minor improvements if solar flux ticks up.
• 12m/10m will likely stay poor, but check for brief openings during local noon.
• No major geomagnetic storms or solar flares are expected, so plan for steady but not spectacular propagation.
• Watch for grayline enhancements and be ready to adapt to any sudden changes in solar or geomagnetic activity.