Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is shaped by a moderate solar flux (100–116), a low sunspot number (23–76), and a very quiet geomagnetic field (K-index 0). Expect good conditions on the lower bands (80m–40m) both day and night, and fair to poor conditions on the higher bands (15m–10m) due to lower solar activity. The bands most likely to deliver reliable contacts are 80m, 40m, and 20m, while 17m and 15m may offer some openings, especially during daylight. 10m and 12m are mostly closed except for occasional short-skip or sporadic-E. Operators should focus on the lower bands for both local and DX work, and monitor for any sudden solar or geomagnetic changes.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 80m, 40m, and 20m for both local and DX contacts—these bands are performing best under current conditions.
• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK) on higher bands (15m–10m) to maximize weak signal opportunities.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• For contesting or DXing, try 17m and 15m during midday, but expect only fair results.
• Keep antennas low-noise and check receive filters—quiet geomagnetic conditions mean low band noise, so weak signals can be heard.
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or enhanced propagation expected; stick to routine FM and repeater work.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: All day and night—best for both local and regional QSOs, with good DX potential at night.
• 20m: Good from late morning through early evening; best for daytime DX.
• 17m & 15m: Midday to early afternoon—fair conditions, check for short-lived openings.
• 12m & 10m: Limited; check late morning to early afternoon for any brief openings, especially during solar flux upticks.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline DX: 40m and 20m are prime for sunrise/sunset long-path openings.
• North-South paths (e.g., South America, Africa) may be more reliable than East-West.
• 20m offers the best chance for intercontinental DX, especially during daylight and grayline.
• Aurora activity is low (Aurora index 2), so no auroral DX expected on VHF/UHF.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m/12m, but don't expect consistent openings.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
80m, 40m, and 20m are the most reliable bands throughout the day and night, offering good local, regional, and some DX potential. 17m and 15m may provide fair conditions, especially around midday, but expect limited DX. 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers—monitor for brief openings but set expectations low.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0 (very quiet) — indicates stable geomagnetic conditions, minimal auroral or absorption effects.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 100–116 (moderate, trending lower) — supports good lower band propagation, but limits higher band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 23–76 (low) — correlates with weaker F-layer ionization, reducing high-band performance.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B7.4, indicating only minor solar activity.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable at 0 over the past 24 hours, reflecting very quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• Impact: Expect low noise on the lower bands and minimal absorption; good for weak-signal work and DX, especially at night.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B7.4 (low) — no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind Speed: 493.9 km/s (moderate) — not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2050 and proton flux at 25 — both are low, so no significant radio blackouts or polar absorption expected.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (very low) — no auroral propagation for VHF/UHF; northern operators will see normal conditions.
• Helium Line: 109.6 — stable, no indication of major solar changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Historical Trends: Solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily since June, with current values at the lowest in several months. This trend explains the weakening of higher band (15m–10m) propagation and the continued reliability of lower bands.
• Expect continued moderate-to-low solar activity until the next solar region rotates into view.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable: Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-index near 0) will continue, with no major solar events forecast.
• Best bands: 80m, 40m, and 20m will remain the most reliable for QSOs and DX.
• Higher bands (17m–10m): Little improvement expected; monitor for any short-lived openings, especially if solar flux ticks upward.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time. Continue to watch for updates in case of sudden solar changes.