Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is moderately challenging, with solar flux at 107 and a sunspot number of 23, both on the lower side compared to recent months. Expect good conditions on 20m, while lower bands (80m/40m) will perform best at night. Higher bands (12m/10m) are mostly poor and likely closed for long-haul DX. Geomagnetic activity is currently low (K=2), so no major disruptions are expected, but the overall trend shows a gradual decline in solar activity. Focus on the mid-bands for reliable contacts, and watch for short-lived grayline openings.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m during daylight for both local and DX contacts; it's the most reliable band today.
• 80m and 40m will be your best bet for evening and night operations, especially for regional QSOs.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on higher bands (15m/12m/10m) to take advantage of weak-signal capabilities.
• Monitor grayline periods (sunrise/sunset) for enhanced propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep an ear on the K-index; if it rises, expect increased noise and fading, especially on higher bands.
• For VHF/UHF, auroral propagation is minimal today, so focus on standard tropo and local contacts.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m: Late morning through afternoon (daytime)
• 17m/15m: Midday for possible openings, but expect only fair conditions
• 12m/10m: Limited to no openings expected; try during peak solar hours (local noon) if at all

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths on 40m and 20m offer the best DX chances—target sunrise/sunset windows for transcontinental contacts.
• 20m remains the most reliable for intercontinental DX, especially east-west paths.
• 15m may open briefly to equatorial and southern latitudes during midday.
• Aurora activity is low (Aurora index: 5), so VHF DX via aurora is unlikely.
• No major solar events or special propagation modes (Sporadic-E, TEP) are forecasted.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

• 20m is the standout performer throughout the day and evening—use this band for both DX and regional contacts.
• 80m and 40m are best at night for local and regional work; daytime absorption limits their range during daylight.
• 17m and 15m are marginal—try digital modes or check for brief openings around midday.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed for most operators; only attempt if you enjoy a challenge or are in equatorial regions.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (Low geomagnetic activity)—stable conditions, little to no auroral disturbance.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 107 (Below average)—limits upper band openings, favors lower/mid bands.
• Sunspot Number: 23 (Low)—reflects a downward trend, reducing ionization and HF band performance.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B2.8 is quiet.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent spikes or disturbances—propagation is steady, with minimal risk of sudden blackouts or auroral effects.
• If this trend continues, expect consistent band conditions for the next day or two.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.8 (very quiet)—no risk of HF blackouts or sudden absorption events.
• Solar Wind Speed: 544.9 km/s (moderate)—slightly elevated but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2850, Proton flux 660—both within normal ranges, so no unusual absorption or noise.
• Aurora Activity: 5 (low)—no auroral propagation expected for VHF/UHF; northern operators will see normal conditions.
• Helium Line: 111.1—indicates stable, moderate solar activity with no major upswings.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months show a decline in solar flux and sunspot numbers, with solar flux dropping from ~138 in June to ~116 now.
• This downward trend means upper HF bands are less likely to open, and overall propagation is shifting toward lower bands.
• Sunspot numbers have also fallen from over 100 to the mid-70s, further confirming reduced ionization.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar and geomagnetic activity are expected to remain quiet, with no major flares or storms forecast.
• 20m will continue to be the most reliable band for both DX and local work.
• 80m/40m will be strong at night, especially for regional contacts.
• High bands (15m/12m/10m) will remain challenging; digital modes may help, but expect mostly poor conditions.
• No alerts or warnings for amateur radio operators at this time—enjoy stable, predictable HF conditions!