Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a quiet geomagnetic field. The solar flux is at 118 with a sunspot count of 33, which means mid and lower HF bands are favored for reliable contacts, while higher bands (12m/10m) are less likely to open. The K-index has remained low (K=2), indicating stable conditions with minimal geomagnetic disturbance. Expect good performance on 20m and below, especially at night, but limited opportunities on 15m and above. For best results, focus on traditional winter DX paths and adjust your operating times to match the band strengths.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 40m for daytime and evening DX; these bands offer the most consistent propagation today.
• 80m and 40m will be quiet and productive during nighttime hours—great for regional and intercontinental QSOs.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) can help pull through weak signals, especially on higher bands with marginal conditions.
• Check grayline times for enhanced long-path and trans-equatorial openings, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Use directional antennas if available to maximize SNR and take advantage of the best propagation windows.
• Monitor solar and K-index updates throughout the day for any sudden changes.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Evening and night for best DX and low noise.
• 20m: Late morning through early evening for global coverage.
• 17m/15m: Midday for possible short/medium-haul DX, but expect only fair conditions.
• 12m/10m: Limited openings; try during local noon, but expect poor results.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is strong on 40m and 20m—target sunrise/sunset for best DX.
• 20m remains the most reliable for intercontinental paths, especially east-west.
• Northern latitude operators may see brief auroral enhancement on VHF, but HF is largely unaffected.
• No major solar events mean stable conditions—no significant blackouts or aurora warnings.
• Watch for short-lived 15m/17m openings to South America, Africa, and Oceania around midday.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the standout performer—good propagation all day and night for both DX and regional contacts.
• 40m and 80m are quiet at night and provide good coverage for both local and DX, especially after sunset.
• 17m and 15m offer fair conditions but are less reliable for long-haul DX.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed—skip these unless you spot a rare opening.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 — Indicates quiet geomagnetic conditions, supporting stable HF propagation.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 118 — Slightly below the recent average, favoring lower HF bands.
• Sunspot Number: 33 — Low, so don’t expect strong high-band openings.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major solar flares or disturbances.
  • X-ray flux at B9.5 (quiet).
  • Aurora activity at 3 (low, minimal HF impact).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has steadily decreased over the past 24 hours, from minor unsettled (K=4.67) to quiet (K=2).
• This trend means decreasing geomagnetic absorption and improving HF conditions, especially for polar and high-latitude paths.
• No geomagnetic storms or warnings are in effect.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B9.5 — Indicates low flare risk, so no HF blackouts expected.
• Solar Wind Speed: 482 km/s — Slightly elevated, but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2300 — Normal, so minimal impact on D-layer absorption.
  • Proton Flux: 7.96 million — Low, no risk of polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora Activity: 3 — Low; VHF/UHF aurora propagation is unlikely.
• Helium Line: 127.7 — Stable, confirming no major solar upsets.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux has declined from a summer peak (~156) to current levels (~118), matching a drop in sunspot numbers.
• Historical sunspot data shows a downward trend since August, explaining the reduced high-band performance.
• HF propagation will continue to favor lower bands until sunspot numbers and solar flux rise again.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Stable geomagnetic conditions expected (K-index 1–2), so no major disruptions.
• Solar flux likely to remain in the 115–120 range, supporting continued good conditions on 20m and below.
• DX prospects: Focus on 40m/20m for reliable contacts; 15m/17m may open briefly during local midday.
• No alerts or warnings—enjoy predictable winter HF propagation!
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or E-skip expected.