Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. With a solar flux around 128 and a sunspot number near 113, expect good openings on 20m, 17m, and 15m during daylight, while 80m and 40m will perform best at night. The K-index is low, so geomagnetic disturbances are minimal, supporting stable propagation. Higher bands (12m, 10m) may be less reliable, especially after sunset. For best results, operate during daylight on the higher bands and switch to lower bands after dark.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m, 17m, and 15m for daytime DX and reliable regional contacts.
• 80m and 40m are your go-to bands for nighttime operation and local nets.
• Use FT8, CW, or other weak-signal modes on 12m/10m to maximize contacts during marginal conditions.
• Monitor the grayline (sunrise/sunset) for enhanced long-distance propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep an eye on real-time K-index updates; if it rises, expect possible shortwave fadeouts, especially on polar paths.
• For contesters: prioritize 20m and 15m during the day, and 40m/80m at night for rate.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Nighttime and early morning for best results; fair during the day.
• 20m/17m/15m: Daylight hours are optimal; still usable into early evening.
• 12m/10m: Late morning to mid-afternoon for any openings; expect poor conditions at night.
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced DX on 40m and 20m.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m and 17m offer the best chances for intercontinental DX, especially along the grayline.
• 15m may open to distant regions during peak daylight, especially on north-south paths.
• 10m/12m: Watch for sporadic E or brief F-layer openings late morning to early afternoon.
• Grayline enhancement: Use 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset for paths to antipodal regions.
• No major aurora or polar path blockages expected today.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m, 17m, 15m are the most reliable bands throughout the daylight hours, supporting both regional and DX contacts.
• 80m and 40m shine at night and early morning, ideal for local and regional QSOs.
• 12m and 10m are marginal, with only fair conditions during the day and poor to closed at night—try digital modes for any openings.
• For DX, focus on 20m and 17m during grayline and daylight; for local, 80m/40m at night.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (very quiet)
  Low geomagnetic activity means stable HF propagation and minimal polar absorption.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 128
  Moderate level—supports good propagation on 20m–15m, but not enough for consistent 10m.
• Sunspot Number: 113
  Healthy sunspot count, indicating active but not extreme solar conditions.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major flares reported (X-ray at B8.1—low).
  • Solar wind is moderately elevated but not stormy.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or sudden disturbances.
• This stability favors reliable HF propagation, especially on higher bands and polar paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B8.1 (low)—no risk of HF blackouts or sudden fadeouts.
• Solar Wind Speed: 558 km/s—slightly elevated, but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Electron Flux: 1940—moderate; no significant impact on HF, but keep an eye on sudden increases.
• Proton Flux: 47—well below storm thresholds.
• Aurora Level: 3—quiet; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is unlikely.
• Helium Line: 122.4—steady, indicating no major solar upswings or downswings.
• Practical Impact:
  • No major disruptions expected.
  • VHF/UHF: No aurora or enhanced propagation events anticipated for northern operators.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent Solar Flux Trend:
  • Solar flux has gradually decreased from a high of ~160 in December 2025 to the current ~126.
  • Sunspot numbers have also declined from ~125 to ~101.
  • This downward trend means high bands (12m, 10m) are less likely to open reliably, but 20m–15m remain strong.
• Historical Context:
  • The current phase is post-peak for Solar Cycle 25, but still active enough for good HF propagation.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with quiet geomagnetic conditions and moderate solar activity.
• 20m, 17m, and 15m will continue to be the best bets for DX and reliable contacts.
• 80m/40m will remain strong at night.
• 12m/10m: Watch for brief daytime openings, especially if solar flux rises or sporadic E occurs.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time.
• Continue to monitor real-time indices for any sudden changes, especially if solar wind or K-index increases.